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China May trade balance 8 June 2014 economic data result export …

China trade balance for May: $ 35.92bn

  • expected is (updated to) +$22.60bn, prior was -$18.45bn

Exports for May: +7.0% y/y

  • expected is (updated to) +6.7%, prior was +0.9%

Imports for May: -1.6% y/y

  • expected +6.0%, prior was +0.8%

I had this listed for Saturday but here it is on Sunday instead!

Westpac note to clients:

  • The trade surplus widened to $US35.9bn in May from $US18.5bn in April and $US20.6bn a year ago.
  • The in-month outcome is by far the largest for May on record
  • Despite the larger in-month outcome, the surplus is still down by 16% year to date on the first five months of 2013, implying that more needs to be done to reduce the large net export drag recorded in Q1.
  • Export growth rebounded to 7%yr in May from 0.9%yr in April and -6.6%yr in March, roughly as expected.
  • China s exports ex Hong Kong and Taiwan were already expanding around the 6-7% pace in April, and that is amount where we intuit underlying growth is at present, given the still evident distortions from the invoicing situation of 2012/13.
  • Import growth went in the opposite direction to exports, as opposed to expectations of a symmetric pick-up, moving from 0.9%yr to -1.5%. This is not as weak as it looks: May 2013 was a strong month for seasonally adjusted imports, so the threshold for holding the y/y rate steady was high.The respective 3mmas are now X: +0.4%yr and M: -4.0%yr.
  • As of 1pm PRC time, detailed commodity and country information has not been released, so there is nothing more to be said until that data comes to hand.

Reuters (subscription):

  • China s imports of major commodities fell in May from the previous month Stricter bank requirements for trade loans have dented import orders to some degree. High stocks and a poor import arbitrage also kept buyers away, said Lian Zheng, a base metals analyst at Xinhu Futures.

And

More at Reuters1 (web):

  • China s exports gained steam in May thanks to firmer global demand, data showed on Sunday, but an unexpected fall in imports signalled weaker domestic demand that could continue to weigh on the world s second-largest economy.

And Bloomberg2:

China s exports rose more than analysts estimated in May, helping to cushion a slowdown in the world s second-biggest economy as an unexpected slump in imports highlights the risks to growth.

Wall Street Journal 3(gated):

Continued subdued import growth seems to reflect slow growth of demand in China s economy, said Louis Kuijs of Royal Bank of Scotland in a note to clients.

Categories: All4, Asia Pacific5, People’s Bank of China6 | Tags: 7, 8, 9, 10 | Permalink 11

Author: Eamonn Sheridan12

Eamonn Sheridan worked with Bankers Trust Australia for 13 years as a Spot foreign exchange dealer, trading across all major currencies and all time zones. He rose to a Vice President position, running spot operations during the busy European time, leaving the bank just prior to it being sold to concentrate on running his own business in the real world ! The markets, however, had him hooked he continued to trade equities, CFDs and then on to futures, giving him broad experience across financial markets. He is now active in FX and equity index futures as well as writing for ForexLive . Eamonn is a graduate of The University of Melbourne in Australia and lives in New South Wales.

References

  1. ^ Reuters (www.reuters.com)
  2. ^ Bloomberg (www.bloomberg.com)
  3. ^ Wall Street Journal (online.wsj.com)
  4. ^ View all posts in All (www.forexlive.com)
  5. ^ View all posts in Asia Pacific (www.forexlive.com)
  6. ^ View all posts in People’s Bank of China (www.forexlive.com)
  7. ^ (www.forexlive.com)
  8. ^ (www.forexlive.com)
  9. ^ (www.forexlive.com)
  10. ^ (www.forexlive.com)
  11. ^ Permalink (www.forexlive.com)
  12. ^ Eamonn Sheridan (www.forexlive.com)


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